New technologies will certainly play a critical role in achieving the ultimate objective of the UN
Convention on Climate Change: “stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.” Such an
achievement is likely to eventually require near elimination of CO2 emissions. Without radical changes in
lifestyles, only a massive deployment of carbon-free (or close to be carbon-free) energy technologies can
power the world economy and satisfy growing energy needs, especially of the developing world, while
making stabilisation sustainable over the long term.
While carbon free energy technologies already exist (e.g., nuclear power and renewable energy
technologies), they represent only a small share of current and projected future energy needs; fossil fuels
continue to dominate the energy mix. Without new policies, the IEA’s most recent World Energy Outlook
(IEA, 2002c) projects this trend will continue in the coming decades.
The AIXG decided in its September 2002 meeting to focus attention on the numerous challenges faced in
promoting new and alternative, low and carbon-free technologies. Key issues addressed in this paper
include:
� Identifying some key technologies, assessing their maturity and the potential for CO2
reduction they offer;
� Considering how technological change occurs, illustrating in particular the role of learningby-doing processes, the role of behaviour and that of policymakers;
� Considering what policy tools governments might use to accelerate maturation and foster
deployment;
� Considering what role increased international co-operation and technology transfers could
play in fostering innovation and technical changes.
Following a review of these issues, the paper provides a brief discussion of the possible effects of different
policy mixes, in particular with respect to the timing of achieving stabilisation. This timing is likely to be
critical in determining the level at which CO2 concentrations might eventually be stabilised (cf. IPCC
2001; IEA, 2002a). Three different strategies are considered: one mainly based on “comprehensive”
instrument such as taxes or cap-and-trade systems; one mainly based on increased technology cooperation, and one “mixed” strategy that would incorporate both elements. The conclusion takes stock of
these preliminary results and considers future work.
It should be noted that this paper exclusively focuses on energy technologies. It does not consider sinks,
non-energy CO2 emissions or emissions of other greenhouse gases (even if they are energy-related), or
technologies for adaptation.
COM/ENV/EPOC/IEA/SLT(2003)4
8
2.
TECHNOLOGY POTENTIAL
Energy-related CO2 emissions can be reduced through technical improvements throughout the energy
sector, and involve:
� End-use technologies in all sectors: household and commercial, industry, transport, which
could reduce the amount of energy used;
� Fuel switching from coal to oil to gas;
� Increased efficiency of energy conversion (such as power plants and refineries);
� Phasing in non-carbon energy sources, such as nuclear power and renewable energy sources;
� CO2 capture and storage.
These possibilities are explored in some detail in the Appendix “Key Technologies”. The analysis here
discusses three policy-relevant issues arising from this information:
� Are existing technologies sufficient to achieve the objective of the Convention?
� Will non-carbon or low-carbon technologies (including fossil fuel use with CO2 capture and
storage) become fully competitive with CO2 emitting energy technologies soon enough if
market conditions are not modified by directly or indirectly pricing the climate change
externality?
� Can we already shape a long term, non-carbon energy future?
