2013 marks five years since the Georgia-Russia war and Moscow’s recognition of Abkhazia as an independent state. Though the de facto Abkhaz authorities and Russia
declared that recognition essentially settled the conflict, in fact it further entrenched
the deadlock.1
Abkhazia, as a local official put it, remains “in a grey zone”, with Russia
its only ally.2
Russia says there is no chance it will rescind its recognition or reconsider its troop presence in the highly strategic South Caucasus. The Abkhaz officially say
the only major issue left to be decided is how Tbilisi will acknowledge their sovereignty. Georgia rules that out and has won diplomatic victories in the form of declarations
by governments and international bodies describing the Russian military presence as
an illegal occupation.3
However, Tbilisi has received little tangible support to reverse
that presence.
The Abkhaz were euphoric when Russia recognised the entity in 2008. They
hoped, unrealistically, to replicate the success of Kosovo,
which has been recognised
by more than 90 countries. Kosovo’s history and demographic situation has little in
common with Abkhazia’s however.4
Its unilateral declaration of independence in
February 2008 was the outcome of a long, internationally-supervised process and
based on a framework devised by UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari that set in place
its internal structure and statehood. Even with such sustained international engagement, recognitions of Kosovo’s independence have come relatively slowly, and the
country faces a range of obstacles in affirming its sovereignty.5
In the Abkhaz case, Russia’s non-fulfilment of the 2008 ceasefire, signed by thenPresident Medvedev and then-French President Sarkozy at a time when Paris held
the EU Presidency, as well as the refusal of the Abkhaz to discuss the fate of ethnic
Georgian IDPs from the region, pose strong obstacles to any consideration of recognition by most states.6
Initially, Russian diplomats worked to secure more significant 2013 marks five years since the Georgia-Russia war and Moscow’s recognition of Abkhazia as an independent state. Though the de facto Abkhaz authorities and Russia
declared that recognition essentially settled the conflict, in fact it further entrenched
the deadlock.1
Abkhazia, as a local official put it, remains “in a grey zone”, with Russia
its only ally.2
Russia says there is no chance it will rescind its recognition or reconsider its troop presence in the highly strategic South Caucasus. The Abkhaz officially say
the only major issue left to be decided is how Tbilisi will acknowledge their sovereignty. Georgia rules that out and has won diplomatic victories in the form of declarations
by governments and international bodies describing the Russian military presence as
an illegal occupation.3
However, Tbilisi has received little tangible support to reverse
that presence.
The Abkhaz were euphoric when Russia recognised the entity in 2008. They
hoped, unrealistically, to replicate the success of Kosovo, which has been recognised
by more than 90 countries. Kosovo’s history and demographic situation has little in
common with Abkhazia’s however.4
Its unilateral declaration of independence in
February 2008 was the outcome of a long, internationally-supervised process and
based on a framework devised by UN Special Envoy Martti Ahtisaari that set in place
its internal structure and statehood. Even with such sustained international engagement, recognitions of Kosovo’s independence have come relatively slowly, and the
country faces a range of obstacles in affirming its sovereignty.5
In the Abkhaz case, Russia’s non-fulfilment of the 2008 ceasefire, signed by thenPresident Medvedev and then-French President Sarkozy at a time when Paris held
the EU Presidency, as well as the refusal of the Abkhaz to discuss the fate of ethnic
Georgian IDPs from the region, pose strong obstacles to any consideration of recognition by most states.6
Initially, Russian diplomats worked to secure more significant
