Industry-related emissions accounted for 43 per cent of carbon released in 1995. Global industry emissions
are slowly growing, while developed country industry emissions are slowly decreasing. As in the building
sector, hundreds of sector-specific technologies combine to offer considerable scope for lowering CO2 and
other GHG emissions. The IPCC estimates the potential at 300-500 MtC in 2010 and 700-900 MtC in 2020
– of which a majority can be realised at net negative cost. Material efficiency improvements (including
recycling, better product design and material substitution) could provide an additional 600 MtC emission
reductions in 2020.
In general, Japan, South Korea and Western European countries have more energy efficient industries than
developing countries, economies in transition and other OECD countries (notably the US and Australia).
The latter offer the highest technical potential for energy efficiency improvements in the industry sector,
though differences in economic potential may be smaller given the lower energy prices that often occur in
the less efficient countries (IPCC, 2001, Vol.3). IEA work on energy indicators (see Unander, 2001)
suggests a variety of reasons for such differences – including energy pricing, geography, and local climate.
Industries and industrial facilities of the future could adopt an increasingly integrated systems approach,
that includes greater use of waste heat and plant-wide optimisation of energy sources and sinks; on-site
generation of electricity with integral carbon separation and capture; and increasing process efficiency,
making use of revolutionary processes as they emerge from R&D, on for example, nanotechnologies,
micro-manufacturing and bio-processing. Advanced industrial processes could also rely on high-speed and
high-capacity computing, robotics-using biological/computer interfaces, artificial intelligence, wireless
communications, power electronics and photonics. In the long term, continued R&D could yield
increasingly bio-based chemical products.
Improvements in the efficiency of existing processes can contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emissions
during a transition phase. As existing infrastructure reaches the end of its useful life and depreciated capital
equipment is replaced, and as new facilities are built, dramatic changes can be introduced. Ultimately,
flexible industrial/energy complexes that can accept a variety of non-renewable and renewable primary
fuels, and produce multi-product outputs – electricity, hydrogen, chemicals and transport fuels – could
emerge. All input streams to such complexes would be used in the final products, or converted to valueadded inputs for other processes or industries.
Advances in materials, separation technologies, bio-catalysis and bio-processing, sensors and controls, and
nanotechnology, among other areas, are needed to underpin this clean industrial future. Fundamentally new
processes for energy-intensive industries, such as steel making and pulp and paper production, are also
needed.
COM/ENV/EPOC/IEA/SLT(2003)4
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7.1.3 Transport
IPCC analyses suggest less optimistic prospects for the transport sector, which currently contributes about
20 to 25 per cent of global CO2 emissions. Most evaluations suggest that technical improvements could
slow the growth in emissions, but not reverse it. The primary problem in the sector is its very rapid growth
rate. In fact, transport emissions could be even further exacerbated by the so-called “rebound effect”
possibly arising from lower travelling costs (and thus, higher volumes) following technical improvements.
The IEA World Energy Outlook (2002c) “Alternative Policy Case” considers a range of policies that could
help restrain OECD transport energy demand and CO2 emissions after 2010 -- but makes it clear that these
policies would have only a limited near-term effect. It notes that effective policies are available for
containing both passenger-vehicle and road-freight energy demand, although it suggests that the growth in
demand for aviation fuel remains a major concern, and the increasing volume of passenger and freighttransport presents a long-term problem.
Transport systems in the latter half of this century could be dominated by vehicles, ships and aircraft with
very low CO2 emissions.
This scenario could feature a mix of vehicle types – fuel-cell vehicles powered by
hydrogen, electric vehicles, vehicles running on biofuels, and hydrogen-powered aircraft. The hydrogen,
biofuels and electricity used in transport could be produced with near-zero well-to-wheel CO2 emissions –
this point is further considered below.
Vehicles can be much more efficient than today’s vehicles, lessening the demand on future fuel and
electric drive systems, as well as helping to reduce emissions substantially during a transition period.
Whether vehicles are powered by hydrogen, electricity or biofuels in the future, if their demand for fuel
can be cut by half or more, the job of achieving a near-zero-emission system will be much easier than
otherwise. A 50% reduction in vehicle fuel use is quite ssible with aggressive application of incremental
and advanced technologies. Hybrid vehicles could be especially important for the substantial efficiency
gains they offer and, perhaps, as a transition technology to electric drive vehicles.
Intelligent transport infrastructure and greater vehicle automation technologies could lead to much more
efficient transport systems, especially for public transport.
Natural gas could play an important role in the transition to a near-zero-emission transport system. Lowemission biofuels could also play an important role, especially during the transition period to hydrogen or
electrically powered vehicles.
Developments needed to support the emergence of such a transport sector include advances in fuel cells,
batteries and other electricity storage media; hydrogen storage; and cellulosic ethanol production. In
addition, the long process of developing the necessary infrastructure for future vehicles and fuel systems
must begin soon, especially for hydrogen (IEA, 2003b).
